It’s time to pipe down and support Ed

Attacking Ed has become the ‘normal’ thing to do. First the right of the party attack him for lacking direction and, well let’s be honest, not being David enough. Then it is the turn of the left, admonishing him for taking the only sensible political option and opposing the strikes, encouraging instead more negotiation and concessions from both sides. Each day as I flick though Labourlist, Labour Uncut or The Guardian the very people who should be helping shape the future direction of the party are instead wasting their time writing petty, self-indulgent pieces putting down our leader whilst offering no viable alternative.

I understand how tempting it is, indeed it is something I took part in when Gordon Brown was in charge, but then look where that got us. At best the public ignore it, making us irrelevant. At worst they find it an absolute turn-off.

I voted for Ed, though I know a lot of you didn’t. I didn’t vote for him because I thought he was a ready made PM in waiting, but because he had a vision. He spoke of a new kind of politics, he engaged thousands of young volunteers into his campaign, some of who had never been involved in any kind of politics before, and he felt like a genuine break from the past. In return for that promise I understood it might take a while for him to get really motoring. For me he is the right leader at the right time, someone to grow into the role as the party grows again out of the ashes of the New Labour era.

For this to work however he needs the best in his party lined-up behind him, not taking pot-shots from the sidelines. I want to see the great and the good going up against each other on schools, health, defence – pushing the party to go further and deliver more radical policy alternatives than ever before. Whilst we are it, let’s start really hammering the coalition. Whilst we are bitching at one another they are systematically destroying everything we hold dear, and we are letting them.

Over the last few weeks we have started to hear more about the kind of party Ed Miliband wants to lead. ‘The Squeezed Middle’ and ‘Promise of a Generation’ are beginnings of a narrative that I hope will end up in detailed policy that will resonate on the doorstep and deliver a genuine alternative to this cruel and unforgiving government.

In the meantime I would love to read more about policy and less about Ed’s leadership – let’s get behind him, campaign as one against the coalition and build a party ready to take power again.

Ed’s Speech – Early signs of the leader he will become

Anyone expecting an electric start to Ed Miliband’s leadership will have been sorely disappointed. He played down the idea of this being the most important speech of his career and instead delivered a safe, solid performance. That is not to say there were no talking points, far from it, as I’ll discuss in a moment. Just that we are going to have to wait a little longer for the detail of whist his leadership means.

The word cloud above tells the real story of his speech – ‘change’ and ‘new generation’ are the stand out phrases… It is clear he thinks that he can steal the mantle of change from the coalition and turn it into a tangible vote winner for Labour. Sceptics suggest the government is just too new for any change message to be effective but I am not so sure. Ed Miliband has been hugely popular among young voters (as any photo of his massive volunteer led campaign team will attest to) who buy into a vision that politics needs a fundamental shift if it is to remain relevant in the 21st century. There are plenty of unhappy Lib-Dems too who feel their party has not quite matched actions to the rhetoric when it comes to changing the way politics does business – genuine change will be music to their disaffected ears.

Speaking of disaffected Lib-Dems, this speech had plenty to woo them back to their rightful home within the Labour party. Ed showed real humility when admitting that the party was wrong to be relaxed about people getting filthy rich. Relative wealth is just as an important indicator of a fair society as absolute wealth. He also showed no mercy when it came to Iraq. Rather than skirt round it, he squared up to it, denounced the decision to go to war as wrong and moved on. Most of the conference floor breathed a sigh of relief and applauded, the absence of applause from most of the former cabinet (Harriet Harman excepted bless her) will only help cement the fact the party has moved on.

By the end of the speech he had clearly won most of conference around, if not yet the country or commentariat. For me though it cemented my views and confirmed once and for all I voted for the right person. Ed’s campaign was all about hope and change for the future – an opportunity to redefine the centre-ground of politics, to set the agenda rather than just follow it. His speech today, although not perfect, suggests he will not shirk from this ambition as leader.

Things to look out for – Ed’s Speech to Conference

Political commentators are liberal with the term ‘the speech of his life’ but on this occasion they might just be right. Ed Miliband takes to the stage for the first time (well second actually – but first proper) this afternoon. This is his big opportunity to define himself beyond the party and to start re-shaping his caricature away from ‘Red-Ed’ and ‘Union-Puppet’. So, what might we expect?

1) David – He has to mention his brother, and I would have thought fairly early in his speech. To not is just to invite a press-storm. Chances are he will talk about both within the context of his family, and within the context of the leadership race. By the time the speech is repackaged for the news expect only to hear of David.

2) Unity – This has already been his watchword over the weekend and expect more of it this afternoon. History suggests the electorate are unforgiving of divided parties and he knows he only has a limited time to bring members and parliamentarians on-board.

3) Responsible Opposition – As a prelude to some difficult conversations within the party he will talk about the need to be a responsible opposition. Opposing where he thinks the coalition are wrong, but supportive and constructive where they agree.

4) The Unions – difficult one for him, but similar to the issue of David, to mention them is almost to invite more comment than he does. I think he plump for talking about Labour being the home of working men and women and responsible/moderate Union leaders being a force for good. I suspect Bob Crow will not get a look in  :)

5) Change – a new generation. This is the key bit, and his ability to  deliver a change narrative throughout the speech is central to its and his overall success. I suspect he will draw on his experience as Environment secretary – an issue he knows is popular amongst younger and lib-dem voters and use this.  Either way – if he nails this message he is in with a shout.

So they are my predictions for later – reviews on both how accurate I have been and how good Ed has been will be posted later.

Time for a Bennite Revolt?

I should admit right at the outset that I have a bit of a rose-tinted view of Tony Benn. My views on the great man have been flavoured less on the 80s firebrand and more on elder statesman, diarist
and conscience of the party. After retiring as MP so as to concentrate more time to politics, he is now leading a call for “ordinary people” to revolt against “the most savage spending cuts since the 1930′s. It is easy to dismiss Tony Benn as a figure of a bygone era, a rabid left-wing politician that has no place in the post-ideological political age. But that is to do him, and his campaign, a huge disservice.

The proposed spending cuts have the potential to destroy livelihoods. Although the coalition remain steadfast that “we are all in this together” the reality will be very different. Increases in VAT, an £11billion cut in the welfare budget and 25% reductions across government departments will all hit the most vulnerable the hardest. It is not millionaire business leaders or bankers that will feel the pain but single mothers, the disabled and their carers. And it is not just service users that will be affected. Internal Treasury documents estimate 1.3million public and private sector job losses over the course of this parliament, all piling more pressure onto whatever services remain.

Policies that have such a negative impact on so many people’s lives must be resisted. Organising communities, holding public meetings and taking to the streets should be embraced by the left, with local Labour parties sitting at the heart of these protests. But protest alone is not enough, if you believe the coalition government, and huge swathes of the media, there is simply no alternative to cuts. The responsibility of all those vying for the Labour leadership is to prove this statement untrue by articulating a viable alternative.

We cannot allow ourselves to get into a situation where as a party we accept the premise of cuts but then argue against them on a one-by-one basis. It does not sound credible and will just further shrink the publics trust in politicians, with Labour as the principal leader. Instead we need to deliver a positive message for change – an alternative and fairer way of doing business. For me Ed Miliband is currently the one best articulating this. Slower deficit reduction, more onus on progressive taxation and support for small business are all key platforms of an alternative economic plan and these, along with a campaign for the living wage, are the central themes of Ed’s campaign. I urge you all to support him.

In the meantime however rather than looking inwards, local Labour parties need to be taking the fight to the government – this means getting on-board the ‘Bennite Revolt’. Whilst our potential leaders slug it out, we need to organise within our communities and deliver our future leader (whoever that maybe) a vibrant grassroots movement willing to fight for an alternative to the vile campaign of cuts being proposed by this government.

Tory plans keep me awake at night – but where is the opposition?

So here I am sitting on a train that is currently winding it’s way to London from Glasgow. I should really be catching up on sleep but every time I start to doze an uncomfortable thought jolts me back to reality. The thought? That the Tories are in complete control of the political agenda, they are already drawing up the battle lines for the next election and by the time the other parties wake up to the threat it may be too late.

The dominant Conservative element of this coalition government are determined to learn from the mistakes of the 1997 Labour Government. Not for them a timid first term, patiently fighting one battle at a time whilst all the while keeping one eye on the polls and focus groups. We are witnessing an object lesson in the exploitation of power by a party that sees the last 13years as an aberration, a temporary lapse in the electorates collective judgement.

Crippling cuts in public expenditure, the effective decoupling of education from LEA’s, the largest overhaul of health provision since the inception of the NHS. Promises of prison reform and welfare reform, not to mention a proposal to significantly reduce the size of the House of Commons and of course a referendum on AV. All this, and it is only August. Once Parliament returns from the summer recess it is time for the spending review and that is when the real fun begins. Don’t let yourself fall for DC’s easy charm – this government is working with an ideological zealotry that Thatcher would be in awe of. Under the cover of ‘necessary cuts’ we are about to witness a dramatic and permanent cut in the size of the state, with those on the margins of society hit the hardest.

And what of the other parties? Nick Clegg and his band of Lib-Dems have gambled all on an AV referendum, ceding all power and voice in an attempt to make progress on their most treasured policy. I fear for a party that now has no identity beyond the coalition itself and could suffer a catastrophic demise at the next election. Regardless, they are in no position to do anything but offer tacit support to the Tories for now. As for Labour, could there really be a worse time for a long drawn out leadership battle that is struggling to maintain interest from it’s own membership let alone from the wider electorate? What we need are Labour’s biggest and best minds working together to build public campaigns, raise the level of debate and hold this un-mandated government to account.

The Tories and their agenda have stolen a march and currently there is no one to stop them. That thought alone is enough to keep me from sleeping.

Labour Leadership – State of the Race and who I am supporting

And well they should be smiling. With formal nominations now closed the race for the leadership is becoming very much a sibling affair. So here are the scores on the doors and an explanation of what happens next.

Diane Abbot – 33 MPs, 2 Trade Unions (ASLEF, TSSA), 2 Socialist Societies and 20 Constituency Parties.

Ed Balls – 33MPs, 1 Trade Union (CWU), 2 Socialist Societies and 17 Constituency Parties

Andy Burnham – 33MPs, 0 Trade Unions, 1 Socialist Society and 44 Constituency Parties

David Miliband – 81MPs, 2 Trade Unions (Community, USDAW), 1 Socialist Society, 165 Constituency Parties

Ed Miliband – 63MPs, 6 Trade Unions (GMB, Unite, Unison, NUM, UCATT, Unity), 3 Socialist Societies,  151 Constituency Parties

In short David has a lead amongst MPs and Constituencies but Ed has a significant advantage within the Union section, not just in numbers but also in scale with the big 3 all supporting him. So, what does this mean? In a sense, nothing. The nominations only indicate support for a leader. The days of block votes are long gone and each individual member has the opportunity to vote for their personal preference. Having said that, momentum is everything and it is clear that ‘the Mo’ is with the Miliband brothers.

For those of you who are not Labour party geeks here is a bit of guidance of what will happen next. Rather than a straight, simple election the Labour Party has a slightly more complex ‘Electoral College’ with MPs, Trade Unions and affiliated societies and the Labour party membership each getting a third of the votes. The idea behind this is to equalise power across the different sections of the party, ensuring no-one holds too much sway but that everyone is fully represented. In a peculiar twist it also means that some people will actually get 3 votes – for instance if you are an MP who is also an individual member and a member of a trade union.Ballot papers will land from the 1st September, with the result announced at conference on the 25th September.The vote itself is known as a transferable eliminating ballot (not so different to the Alternative Vote system that we will all get a chance to vote on sometime next year). This means that, if no-one can claim 50%+1 of all votes cast in the first round, whoever comes bottom of the poll will be eliminated and their 2nd preference votes added to the original totals – this will continue until there is an outright winner. Simple :)

As for who I am backing? Well it is going to be Ed. He is running a positive, issues based campaign that really resonates with me. As importantly, he of all candidates, grasps the importance of organising to win. Labour as a party has forgotten how to build a grass-roots movement through energetic, timely local campaigns. Ed’s team seem to be building exactly this kind of movement in their bid for the leadership and it great to see. If you want to see more of what I am talking about visit his website here.

Come back soon for more updates on the campaign.

An Apology to the Labour Party

Dear Labour Party,

This is a difficult letter to write, but write it I must. It is important that I put down in words my misdeeds in the hope that others can learn from my mistakes.

I admit I strayed. Even now I am not sure exactly what it was. The debates helped for sure – he just looked so young, so fresh… a different politician for a different age. The lack of campaign from yourselves was a factor as well – why didn’t you remind me of the good times a little more? The schools, the hospitals, equality laws, sure-start, the national minimum wage?  All I heard was a squabble about £6billion and all I saw were a lot of white, pasty middle-aged men.

Still this letter is not meant to be about you, but rather about me and my shortcomings. I admit I was seduced by Nick… I liked his casual style and I still think he has a point about creating a more liberal Britain. But I listened to John Prescott at the weekend and I realised just how misguided I have been. Creating a liberal Britain is important, of course it is, but the real prize is a socially just one. There is no point in a liberal state unless we also build a fair state alongside it. And we should be clear – there is no fairness in refusing to rebuild falling-down schools, depriving our children of learning in the best possible environments;  there is no fairness in the closing of sure-start centres in some of the poorest communities; and there is no fairness in the shutting off of funding to schemes that boost employment and training of our young.

Fairness is innate within the Labour Party, it isn’t about sound-bite or a response to focus groups – the fight for fairness is what created the party and it still runs deep in the blood of the membership today. In fact, when it comes to fairness there is only one party in town. I have learnt that now and will never again have my head turned by others.

That is not to say we are without problems. Hopefully we can all learn to work and play together  again after the divisive policies of ID Cards, Student Fees and, of course, Iraq. But looking forward also means creating a vision. Borrowing from Mr Prescott again, how do we define traditional Labour values in a modern setting? How do we regain the trust of the public? How do we excite and inspire in this age of austerity and gloom? The party needs to renew itself – not just in policy (though this is key) – but from it’s local parties upwards. We have to change the way we campaign, fighting passionately on local issues, but also linking them to a national agenda. We have to reach out to first time voters and engage with them on the issues they care about. Most of all however we need to make our local parties more inclusive again, for too long party meetings have been the exclusive domain of the political geek. By simplifying our structures and making meetings more focussed on genuine debate, local issues and the exchange of ideas we have an opportunity to create a wider, more representative membership than ever before.

So, if you’ll have me, I want to come back into the fold – but this time I am not going to stay quiet. I am going to fight hard for what I believe in – for making the party more open, improving the level of debate, giving  new members a voice and, most of all, ensuring that fairness remains at the heart of who we are.

Yours,

Boris

Angry with Labour; Depressed about the Tories; Hoping for a Clegg masterplan

So there we have it, a full-blown Tory-Lib-Dem Coalition. David Cameron in office and his boy George already installed next door. Having read through several papers and been glued to the BBC website my first emotion has been anger at the Labour Party.

Anger that Labour Party MPs and Peers did not have the discipline to stay silent until at least the negotiating team had an opportunity to do their work; anger at the Labour negotiating team for being so arrogant as to not offer any real concessions to the Lib-Dems (particular venom here to whoever decided to send Ed Balls into the mix) and, most of all, anger that the Labour party just did not want it enough – after a strong grass-roots campaign, activists were let down by a parliamentary party that had got arrogant and lacked the desire for power the Tories clearly have, figuring some time for renewal in opposition was preferable to taking the hard choices that any future government would need to make.

Depressed at seeing David Cameron on the steps of Number 10 and feeling sick at the thought of George Osborne in Number 11. The Lib-Dems might have softened the blow, but still we are going to see drastic cuts to public-sector spending in this financial year – costing tens of thousands of jobs and untold misery to so many families in need; an unneeded and unenforceable annual cap on immigration; not to mention a patronising and regressive tax break for married couples. In short, regardless of the positives brought about through coalition, we should not forget that this is a Tory government and we should expect it to act as such.

And so to Clegg – Huge credit should go to him and his team for squeezing every last drop out of the Tories desire for power. 5 seats in the cabinet, the title of deputy PM and significant concessions on tax, education, civil liberties and, of course, electoral reform. But PR still seems a distant goal for the House of Commons and foreign policy, particularly Europe looks likely to be dominated by the Tory side of this arrangement.

So what is the long-game for Clegg? He is currently committed to a 5-year fixed-term parliament, but it seems unlikely that the coalition will last that long. Although his MPs are happy with the new arrangement, many voters and activists are far less comfortable, some have already jumped to Labour – expect more to follow. This alone could be enough to undermine confidence in the current arrangement. Clegg is a smart guy and would have calculated all this during the negotiations – he clearly believes that the opportunity to deliver some key planks of Lib-Dem policy will be enough to give him lasting change at the ballot box. Only time will tell on this.

In the meantime, people like me are rather left in limbo – willing the Lib-Dems to show they have not sold-out cheaply for a shot of power, but not yet convinced. A detailed policy document comes out later today, perhaps this will reassure us all.

The Scores on the Doors – Election Day+4

Well it certainly hasn’t got any less tense. The negotiating teams from what we now are all 3 main parties must really be starting to feel the pressure. The stake are high – for the Tories this is their best chance to govern in over a decade and they are not going to give it up lightly; for Labour, and Gordon Brown in particular, this is about short-term survival. For the Lib-Dems however the stakes are even higher… the opportunity to usher in electoral reform and with it the birth of a 3-party system in the UK or the return to 2-party politics and the end of the Lib-Dems as any kind of significant force.

So here we are, 4 days after the election and what are likely outcomes? Although it feels that not much has changed since Friday, it does feel that some of the alternatives are working themselves either in or out of the equation.

Let’s look at the possibility of a Lib-Dem/Tory pact first – It is highly unlikely that Cameron will (or indeed can) offer an explicit promise of a referendum on voting reform. In turn, this means that Clegg will not (or be able to) agree to a formal coalition between the two parties – if he did the Lib-Dems membership would go into meltdown. So at best the Tories get to run a minority government with a supply and confidence arrangement with the Lib-Dems.

Where would this leave electoral reform I hear you ask? Good point… Well it seems fair to assume that Nick Clegg could not enter into any agreement without the Tories giving at least something away on this issue. My bet would be the all-party inquiry on electoral reform that was promised by Cameron, but with a formalised and relatively short time-line attached to it. This would be followed by a free-vote in the Commons and, if the Lib-Dems could get the votes,  a possible referendum after that.

Now for Lib-Dem/Labour – From a negotiating position this feels more simple. Most Lib-Dems have more in common with Labour and they have already been promised both a referendum and a number of seats in cabinet, they agree broadly on economic reform and I imagine Labour could be forced into burying the ID card scheme and giving way on asylum. The issue here is purely political and revolved around one major issue… Leadership. No-one, not even Labour people want Gordon Brown to stay… that much is clear. But when should he leave and, once that is sorted, who should replace him and how do you respond to the inevitable claims that the new leader will have no mandate from the public. That said, if (and I appreciate it is a big ‘if’) this could be sufficiently dealt with I think both Plaid and the SNP would jump aboard this train and a stable, fixed-term, government would emerge.

Regardless of my views, with the Lib-Dems meeting now and the Tories meeting at 2pm it looks like we are going to see at least some movement today. My heart still suggests a Lib-Lab pact is possible but my head thinks that Clegg will find it hard to reconcile the issues around leadership and will ultimately plump to prop-up a Tory government.

What that will do for electoral reform in this country and the future of the Lib-Dem is something for us all to think about.